江苏省第二产业演进与工业三废排放关系研究

Research on relationship between emission of industrial wastes and the growth of secondary industry in Jiangsu province

本文采用江苏省1991~2014年统计年鉴环境污染和第二次产业产出数据,运用Johansen检验、Granger检验、广义脉冲响应函数分析和方差分解等方法,分析资源依附型产业及非资源依附型产业环境污染变量与第二次产业成长的相互作用与相互影响,并结合资源依附型与非资源依附型产业的EKC特征分析探讨促进江苏省"三废"减排的二次产业结构调整政策.研究结果表明:环境污染咅变量与第二次产业产出长期存在均衡关系;第二次产业成长是引起资源依附型和非资源依附型产业"三废"排放变化的Granger原因;环境污染各变量的变化在短期对第二次产业产出有较大冲击,但其长期动态效应趋于下降;资源依附型产业废气及固体废弃物排放变化对江苏省第二次产业产出变化的贡献度要大于非资源依附型产业,而工业废水的排放表现则相反.EKC特征分析表明资源依附型产业工业废气减排与固体废弃物减排为江苏省环境管理面临的首要挑战.

Through Johansen test,Granger test of causality,functional analysis of generalized impulse and variance decomposition,in combination with analysis of EKC characteristics of different industries,the relationship and interaction between emission of“industrial wastes”by both resource-based and non-resource-based industries and the growth of secondary industry in Jiangsu province is analyzed on basis of1991~2014data from Statistical Yearbooks of Jiangsu.It is found that(1)in the long run variables for waste water,waste gas and solid waste keep in balance with output ofsecondary industry;(2)growth of secondary industry Granger-causes the change of emission of“industrial wastes”by both resource-based and non-resource-based industries;(3)changes of emission of“industrial wastes”in short run have considerable impact on output of secondary industry,but in the long run their dynamic effects tend to decrease;(4)variances in emission of waste gas and solid waste by resource-based industries contribute more to variance in output of secondary industry of Jiangsu province than variances in emission of waste gas and solid waste by non-resource-based industries do,but the opposite can be said for the emission of industrial waste water;(5)analysis of EKC characteristics of different industries with respect of emission of different wastes shows that reduction of emission of industrial waste gas and solid waste presents number-one challenge for environmental management of Jiangsu province.