基于SPA-MC模型的岩溶地区水资源安全动态评价——以贵阳市为例

Dynamic assessment of water resources security in karst area based on SPA-MC model——a case study of Guiyang city

为合理评价岩溶地区水资源安全态势,基于PESBR概念模型构建涵盖岩溶地区工程性缺水特性的评价指标体系,并采用SPA-MC(集对分析--马尔科夫链)耦合模型对2002~2014年贵阳市水资源安全状况进行动态评价.研究表明:贵阳市水资源安全除2008、2012、2014年属"较安全"等级外,其余年份为"临界安全"等级,受"安全"等级隶属度f_1和累计等级联系度H_2逐渐上升的影响,贵阳市水资源安全等级逐渐向"较安全"的趋势转变;依据贵阳市2015~2050年水资源安全预测结果可知,贵阳市未来水资源安全将长期处于"较安全"状态,其中,"安全"等级隶属度f_1在2015~2050年期间从0.365持续上升至0.435,而"不安全"等级f_5则甶0.194下降至0.138,年均下降率达1.93%;实例证明SPA-MC耦合模型对水资源动态评价结果合理、客观.

To reasonable evaluate water resources security situation in karst area,this paper based on the PESBR conceptual model,build evaluation index system of water resources safety which covered engineering water shortage characteristics,then the SPA-MC(Set pair analysis-Markov chain)coupling model was adopted to dynamically evaluated water resources security situation in Guiyang city during2002~2014.According to the forecast results of the safety of water resources in Guiyang city2015~2050,Guiyang city in the future water resources security will remain relatively safe state,the"safe"level of membership in the f12015~2050period lasted from0.365rose to0.435,while the"unsafe"level of f5decreased from0.194to0.138,with an average annual decline rate up to1.93%;the example proved that the SPA-MC coupling model to evaluate the water resources dynamic results are reasonable and objective.