人口结构、房价对中国居民储蓄率的影响研究——基于代际交叠模型和我国省际面板的分析

The Effect of Population Structure and Housing Price on China's Household Saving Rates:An Analysis Base on Overlapping Generation Models and the Provincial Panel Data in China

本文基于生命周期理论,构建了代表性家庭的效用函数,基于效用最大化,理论上得出少儿抚养比和老年抚养比与储蓄率呈反向变化,房价与储蓄率呈同向变化,具体机制是由于少儿抚养比上升和老年抚养比上升会导致家庭中的处于劳动年龄阶段的父母储蓄变少,由于父母有利他行为会为下一代买房而储蓄,从而推导出房价与储蓄率呈同向变化,然后运用2000~2014年中国省际面板数据构建动态面板方程,运用两步差分GMM方法得出具体的影响。

We construct the utility function of typical family based on life cycle theory and make a conclusion that thechange of young dependency ratio and elderly dependency ration are contrary to that of saving rate,housing price and sav?ing rates have same direction change.The specific mechanism is that because of young dependency ratio and elderly depen?dency ration rising,saving of parents in age of labor force decrease,and owning to parents’altruistic behavior,they willsave for the next generation to buy a house and come to a conclusion that housing price and saving rates have same directionchange.Then we use panel data of province in China to construct dynamic panel equation between2000and2014,and ap?ply two step difference GMM to the equation and reach to specific conclusion.