城镇人口年龄结构变化对国内旅游消费的动态冲击效应

The Dynamic Impact Effects of Urban Population Age Structure Change on Domestic Tourism Consumption

本文以我国1994~2013年的年度数据为基础,采用VAR模型对国内旅游消费与城镇人口年龄结构变化之间的关系进行实证分析,并采用脉冲响应函数和方差分解探析城镇人口年龄结构变化尤其是人口老龄化的加快对国内旅游消费的冲击及影响趋势。结果表明:不同年龄结构对旅游消费的影响存在差异,短期内45~64岁城镇人口比重对旅游消费影响显著,而从长期趋势看,65岁及以上城镇人口比重对旅游消费影响更显著,说明随着城镇人口老龄化的快速发展,不仅没有拉低旅游消费,反而显著促进旅游消费增长。

Based on the annual data of1994-2013in our country,this paper uses VAR model to analyze the relationshipbetween domestic tourism consumption and the age structure of urban population.And the estimated results of impulse re?sponse function and variance decomposition analysis reveal that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship be?tween domestic tourism consumption and urban population structure.The study indicates the influence of different age stag?es on tourism consumption is different.In the short term,the proportion of45-64years old urban population has a signifi?cant impact on tourism consumption,but from a long-term trend,the proportion of urban population aged65and above hasa more significant impact on tourism consumption.It states urban aging population increase does not pull down the domestictourism consumption but apparently pulls up the consumption instead.