甘肃省城镇化建设与投融资的动态关系分析

The Dynamic Relationship Analysis between Urbanization Construction and Investment and Financing in Gansu Province

本文阐述城镇化与投融资的影响机制,采取协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验、VAR模型、脉冲响应函数与方差分解等方法,以2001~2015年甘肃省城镇化率、城镇公用设施投融资与政府财政支出数据为分析样本,实证检验甘肃省城镇化与投融资之间的动态关系。研究结果表明:甘肃省城镇化与投融资之间存在长期均衡关系,二者存在双向格兰杰因果关系;投融资发展能够显著提升甘肃省城镇化水平,而甘肃省城镇化水平提升也有助于促进投融资发展。最后,提出提高甘肃省城镇化发展质量、加大金融支持城镇化建设力度的对策建议。

This article describes the influential mechanism of the urbanization and the investment and financing,adoptingcointegration test,Granger causality test,VAR model,impulse response function and variance decomposition methods,using urbanization rate from2001to2015in Gansu province,investment and financing of urban public facilities and gov?ernment fiscal spending data as the analysis samples,to have empirical test about the dynamic relationship between urban?ization and the investment and financing in Gansu province.The result shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relation?ship between urbanization and the investment and financing in Gansu province.Both have two-way Granger causality rela?tionship;Investment and financing development can significantly enhance the level of urbanization in Gansu province andthe promotion of urbanization level also helps the development of investment and financing in Gansu province.Finally,itputs forward the countermeasures and Suggestions of improving the quality of urbanization,intensifying financial support tourbanization construction in Gansu province.