外商直接投资物流业的动态关系研究——基于PVECM模型的实证分析

The Research on the Dynamic Relationship of Direct Foreign Investment on Logistics Industry ——An Empirical Analysis via the PVECM Model

采用1996~2012年中国31个省份的面板数据,构建了PVECM模型,并应用脉冲响应函数和方差分解模型重点研究了外商直接投资对物流业发展的动态影响。研究结果显示:物流业的发展主要是由于物流业自身存在的自我增强效应和经济增长对其所产生的正向带动效应的作用结果,而外商直接投资规模的扩大并未能有效带动物流业的发展。

By using the panel data from31provinces in China during the years1996~2012and applying VarianceDecomposition Model,the PVECM Model is constructed,and the dynamic effect of direct foreign investments on thedevelopment of the logistics industry in China is regarded as the main research focus.The research results show(1)that thedevelopment of the logistics industry is mainly due to the self-reinforcing effect of logistics industry itself and due to theeffect of the economic growth on the positive promotion and(2)that the expansion of the direct foreign investment scaledoesn’t efficiently bring the logistics industry along.