鼓励“全面二孩”:中国中长期人口发展的战略选择——基于“全面二孩”政策的人口学后果分析

Second-child Stimulation:a Strategic Option for China's Middle-and-Long-term Population Development——Analysis of the "Universal Two-child" Policy's Demographic Consequences

全面放开二胎到底会产生怎样的人口学后果?对于这一问题的回答,人口学界和社会学界一直争论不休。"全面二孩"政策正式实施一年的实际效果表明,虽然符合"全面二孩"政策标准的目标人群规模庞大,但发生实际二孩生育行为的潜在人群规模却相对有限。仅仅允许全面生育二孩不仅不足以使生育率回升并稳定在更替水平附近,而且有限的人口增量对我国应对即将到来的老龄化社会的作用也将十分有限,只有鼓励全面生育二孩才是应对之策。长远看来,鼓励全面生育二孩将会是中国中长期人口发展必然的战略选择。

Demographic and sociological scholars argue and differ in opinions about the consequence of the 'universal two-child' policy. The policy's one-year practice proves that the number of parents who have the potentiality to raise a second child was still limited compared with the huge target population that conform to the policy. Therefore,simply allowing families to have a second child is not enough to rebound the fertility rate and stabilize the birth replacing level,and the limited population increase can hardly respond to the society's imminent aging in China. Measures must be taken to stimulate parents to raise the second child and the encouragement of a second child is a necessary strategic option for China's middle-and-long-term population development.