重大工程项目的社会稳定风险多维综合评价研究

Multidimensional Synthetic Evaluation of Social Stability Risk about Important Project

重大工程项目的建设极易引发社会稳定风险,建立科学合理的风险评价方法对于评估风险程度、制定有针对性的防范措施、从源头上化解社会矛盾十分必要。本研究在统计梳理相关文献和各部门评估文件中评价指标使用频次的基础上,科学客观地选取指标,创新地从合理性、合法性、可行性、可持续性四个方面构建评价指标体系;并基于等风险图原理,构建多维综合评价模型,从风险发生概率、造成影响、风险可控性三个维度对重大工程项目社会稳定风险进行综合评价。通过实际案例实证分析,结果表明,该评价体系在重大工程项目社会稳定风险评估中,具有一定的适用性和可操作性。

The construction of important project easily leads to social stability risk,so it's necessary to set up scientific risk evaluation methods to evaluate risks,take effective precautions,and resolve social contradictions from the source.The index system is selected scientifically and objectively on the basis of combing the related documents and the evaluation documents issued by the department,and it was constructed creatively from four aspects:rationality,legitimacy,feasibility and sustainability.And then,the paper constructs the multi-dimensional comprehensive evaluation model based on the equal risk curve and applies comprehensive evaluation method todo the synthesize measurement of the social stability risk from three dimensions which were respectively the occurrence probability,impact,and risk controllability.The empirical analysis shows that the evaluation system is suitable and feasible for the social stability risk evaluation of important engineering project.