国际原油价格变化对中国化工品定价影响研究

Study on the impact of international crude oil price on China's chemical product pricing

我国是世界第一大货物贸易国,也是原油主要进口国,但是对于国际大宗商品定价没有主导权。本文通过对我国化工品期货与其原料原油期货价格进行实证分析来研究定价机理。结果表明:Brent原油价格对数每上升1%,则国内化工品期货价格对数上升0.18%-0.2%,Brent原油期货价格与PTA、PP、LLDPE期货价格在传导路径上存在双向引导关系,而Brent原油期货与沥青期货价格只存在单向引导关系。

China is the world's largest trade in goods and the main importer of crude oil too,but there is no dominance for the international commodity pricing.In this paper,through the empirical analysis of futures on China's chemical and raw material crude oilfutures prices to study the pricing mechanism.The results show that if Brent crude oil price increase1%,in the domestic chemical pricelogarithm will rise0.18%-0.2%,and the Brent crude oil futures price has a two-way relationship with the PTA,PP and LLDPE futures prices on the conduction path,Brent crude oil futures and asphalt futures prices only exist one-way guide relationship.