基于趋势分析法的火工品可靠储存寿命估计

Storage Life Evaluation of Initiating Explosive Device Based on Trend Analysis

针对加速寿命试验预估得到的火工品可靠储存寿命与实际相差较大、精度较低的问题,对某型火工品进行了自然环境长储试验。将检测得到的关键性能参数进行了最小二乘回归分析,并利用非中心t分布建立相应的容忍区间,结合性能指标的失效阈值,得到火工品的可靠储存寿命估计值。所得结果表明,该方法得到的寿命估计值大于通过加速寿命试验得到的火工品设计可靠储存寿命,考虑了火工品储存过程中的实际情况,准确性更高,为该火工品及相关弹药产品的延寿提供了依据。

Aimed at the reliable storage life of the initiating explosive device by accelerated life test is different from theactual one,and the precision is low,a natural environment long-storage test for a certain type of initiating explosive device wasconducted.Least squares regression analysis was carried out on the key performance parameters.By using the non-centralt-distribution,the corresponding tolerance interval was established.Combining the failure threshold of the performance index,thereliable storage life estimation of the initiating explosive device was obtained.The results show that the life estimation obtained bythis method is higher than that of accelerated life test.This method considered the actual situation during the storage,and has moreaccurate.This paper provides the basis for the extension of the initiating explosive device and their related ammunition products.