集中连片特困区农村金融发展的动态减贫效应研究——基于435个贫困县的经验分析

The Research on Dynamic Poverty Reduction Effect of Rural Financial Development in Concentrated Extremely Poor Areas: An Empirical Analysis Based on 435 Poverty Countries

选取2005—2013年我国集中连片特困区435个国定贫困县的样本数据,从金融发展规模、效率和服务程度不同维度,运用PVAR模型测度金融发展水平与贫困程度之间动态作用关系。研究结果表明:金融发展与贫困减缓存在先抑后扬的"非线性关系",在短期金融发展对贫困减缓呈现负向冲击,而长期则具有正向激励。现阶段贫困地区农村金融体制与机制缺陷,将制约金融资源与生产要素的深层结合,抑制甚至负向影响金融减贫的实践效果。通过贫困地区内在机制与体制创新,才能驱动农村金融作用于贫困减缓的行为轨迹,扩张金融减贫的正向作用路径与空间,实现金融减贫的阈值跨越。

This article selects435povertycounties’sample data of concentrated extremely poor areas of Chinain2005-2013,from financial development scale,efficiency and service level in different dimensions,using PVAR model to analyze the dynamic function relationship between financialdevelopment and povertylevel.The result shows that:there exits“nonlinear relationship”,which in the short term financial development has a significant negative impact on poverty reduction,while longterm positive incentives.At the present stage,the defects of rural financialsystem and mechanism will restrict the deep combination between financial resource and productionfactors,even negative influence the practice of financial poverty reduction effect.Through the reform of rural financial system and mechanism,which will drive rural financial to play role in poverty alleviation,the expansion of the positive path and space of financial poverty alleviation,to step over the financial poverty threshold.