中国城乡迁移和流动人口规模重新估计——基于农村整村调查的分析

The Reestimation of China's Rural-to-Urban Migration and the Scale of Migration Population:An Analysis Based on a Whole Village Survey

农村人口迁移和流动对中国经济社会发展产生了深远的影响。本文利用事件史分析法对城乡分年龄、性别人口的迁移率和流动率进行测算,并利用年龄推移法对1991-2010年的中国农村常住人口、农村户籍人口和农村流动人口进行重新估计。研究发现,首先,利用事件史分析法,采用整村调查数据能够较好地模拟中国农村人口的流动和迁移过程;其次,利用年龄推移法对农村常住人口的结构进行修正后发现,2015年农村65岁及以上常住老年人的比重比全国平均水平高出4.1个百分点;再次,不仅农村常住人口老龄化程度较高,在城乡间流动的人口中,50岁及以上的劳动力占比也呈上升态势,农民工群体的老龄化趋势非常明显;最后,虽然从时间序列上看,农村留守儿童规模整体呈下降态势,但学龄前儿童留守的比例从2010年的43.3%上升到2015年的45.88%,提高了2.58个百分点。

Migration and mobility of rural population affects China’s economic and social development profoundly.This paper calculates the migration rate and mobility rate of rural population by age and gender group with event history analysis,and re-estimates the size of rural residents population,rural registered population and rural migration population from1991to2010with cohort component projection.The results show that firstly,event history analysis is an appropriate method to simulate the migration and mobility process of rural population by using the whole village survey data.Secondly,the proportion of rural residents aged65and above is4.1percentage points higher than the national average in2015according to the cohort component projection.Thirdly,not only the ratio of rural residents population is high,the number of migration labor force aged50and above also shows an upward trend,and the average age of migration population is obviously growing.Finally,although the number of left-behind children is declining,the ratio of preschool children who are left-behind increases by2.58percentage points,rising from43.3percent in2010to45.88percent in2015.