京津冀地区机动车燃油质量标准升级的环境经济分析

Environmental economic analysis of upgrading the fuel quality in the Jing-Jin-Ji region

比较分析了中国燃油质量标准与世界先进标准的差距及技术可行性,并基于可得的中石化与中石油等企业的燃油升级成本相关信息,估算了京津冀地区机动车燃油质量标准升级的直接经济成本(不区分汽油与柴油)约为:国III升级至国IV,142~470元/t;国IV升级至国V,142~236元/t;国V升级至《世界燃油规范》第五类,不低于142~236元/t.使用美国环保署(EPA)的燃油质量模型以及其他相关研究结果,通过选择硫含量、芳烃、烯烃含量等关键参数,本研究估算了不同燃油质量标准下的单车排放因子及其变化.同时,分别选择2005、2008以及2012年作为分析的基年,在当年车队组成结构不变的前提下,对京津冀地区的燃油质量提升进行了回溯性的环境经济分析,估算了在不同的基年将燃油标准升级至世界最高标准所可能带来的单年污染物减排量和累积污染物减排量.研究结果显示:燃油质量提升可以带来单车排放因子的下降,从而降低整个京津冀地区机动车的污染排放,且VOC和PM的减排效果更为显著;在机动车标准较低时-采用更高品质的燃油可以以较小成本带来更大的污染物减排;由于各地机动车数量和结构存在差异,燃油质量提升所带来的减排效果也存在地区差异;仅就燃油质量改进的直接成本与可以实现的污染物减排量而言,越早实现燃油质量升级越具有费用有效性.因此,在更大范围内尽快推进燃油质量升级可以有效促进机动车污染物的减排.

In this study,we compared China’s current fuel quality standards with the world’s strictest ones thendiscussed the technical feasibility to upgrade it in China.Based on available data from China National PetroleumCorporation(CNPC),China Petro-Chemical Corporation)CPCC and other enterprises,we have estimated the directeconomic cost of upgrading the fuel quality standard as follows(considering gasoline and diesel as one kind):fromChina III to China IV,142~470CNY/t;from China IV to China V,142~236CNY/t;from China V to the5th standard inthe Worldwide Fuel Charter(5th Edition),142~236CNY/t.Using EPA’s fuel models and other studies on fuelproperties,we chose China III,China IV,China V and the5th Standard in the Worldwide Fuel Charter(5th Edition)asthe four main scenarios for this study,which differ in some key parameters such as sulfur,aromatic hydrocarbons andolefin et al,in order to estimate the changes in emission factors of each specific vehicle under the proposed scenarios.Furthermore,keeping the fleet structure of that year unchanged,we selected the years of2005,2008and2012tocalculate the annual and the accumulative reduction of emissions in the Jing-Jin-Ji region when we upgraded the fuelstandard for each year,starting from the best standard available upgrading to the5th in the Worldwide Fuel Charter.From this study,we found that upgrading the fuel quality standards in China does contribute to the reduction of allkinds of emissions from vehicles hence it reduces the total emission in the whole area,especially for VOC and PM.That reduction is more obvious when the standard before the upgrading is less strict.While,considering different sizesand different composition of the fleet of vehicles in the region,the outcomes for different areas are varied.Combining the costs and the estimated reduction in emissions,it was found that the sooner this policy is implemented,the highercost effectiveness it has,but the more reduction of emission it will bring at the same time.Hence,according to thefindings of this study we suggest that upgrade the fuel quality standards must be carried out as soon as possible even ifthis may lead to a higher cost.