中国碳排放交易权机制的政策效果分析——基于双重差分模型的估计

Analysis of the performance of carbon emissions trading right in China——The evaluation based on the difference-in-difference model

在控制地区环境规制等重要解释变量下,检验碳排污交易权试点机制在中国是否能促进我国的低碳经济转型.研究结果显示:在全局DEA框架下,考察期内,碳排放交易权试点省份与非试点省份的工业全要素生产率提升乏力.从潜在双重红利来看,相对于试点省份,非试点省份的减排手段缺乏灵活性,其经济红利和环境红利仍有较大的释放空间.基于核匹配双重差分模型的政策效应分析可知,碳排污权交易机制在一定程度上降低现阶段碳排放总量,但对经济产出的影响微弱;碳排放交易权试点政策并没有提高试点省份的工业全要素生产率,而对技术进步率有显著的提升作用.因此,碳排放交易权机制在一定程度上支持了技术创新的"弱波特假说",而对全要素生产率的"强波特假说"并未显现,碳排放交易权机制应该是我国实现低碳经济转型的必要措施.

The paper examined whether the mechanism of pilot project for carbon emissions trading right could promote thelow-carbon economy transformation in China after controlling some important explanatory variables such as theenvironmental regulation.The results showed that in the global DEA framework,the industrial total factor productivity lackedof ability to enhance both in the provinces which launched the pilot project for carbon emissions trading right and in thosewhich didn’t during the inspection period.From the point of potential double dividend,the measures to reduce emissionswere not so flexible in the non-pilot provinces as those in the pilot provinces,so that there was still a large release space forthe economic dividend and environmental dividend in the non-pilot provinces.The policy effect analysis based on thedifference-in-difference model of kernel matching presented that the mechanism of carbon emissions trading right couldreduce the total amount of carbon emissions at the present stage to some extent,but its impact on economic output was weak;the pilot project didn’t improve the industrial total factor productivity in the pilot provinces while it enhanced significantly thetechnological progress rate.Therefore,the mechanism of carbon emissions trading right supported the‘weak Porterhypothesis’for technological innovation to a certain extent,but didn’t give evidences to support the‘strong Porter hypothesis’for total factor productivity.It should be a necessary measure to realize the low-carbon economy transformation in China.