基于系统动力学的煤炭项目经济评价研究

Study on the Economic Evaluation for Coal Project Based on System Dynamics

由于煤炭项目的经济评价具有动态性、复杂性和非线性的特点,鉴于在传统财务报表法中存在工作量大,效率低的弊端,本文运用系统动力学方法通过建立煤炭项目经济评价系统动力学模型,实现对煤炭项目基本面、盈利能力和偿债能力分析。结果表明,仿真评价结果与理论值一致,可以为煤炭项目的投资决策提供参考。

Due to the economic evaluation on coal project with the dynamics,complexity and nonlinear,in view of the traditional method of financial statements had a disadvantage of plentiful workload and low efficiency,this paper analyzed the fundamentals,profitability and solvency of coal projects by way of the model of coal project economic evaluation system dynamics using system dynamics method.Results showed that the simulation results were consistent with the theoretical calculations to be able to provide a scientific reference for a decision-making of coal project investment.