长江中游城市群绿色发展指数测度及时空演变探析——基于GWR模型

Study on Spatial-temporal Evolution and Measurement of Green Development Index of Urban Agglomerations in the Middle Reaches of Yangtze River——GWR Model Based

绿色发展兼顾资源环境与社会经济双重效益,是国家重点关注的区域发展新模式。通过熵权-TOPSIS法测度长江中游城市群31个城市的绿色发展指数,借助环境库兹涅茨曲线理论解析造成差异化格局的成因,进一步引入GWR模型深入探讨了影响因素的空间溢出效应,旨在揭示长江中游城市群在绿色发展进程中出现的问题和所面临的处境,加深区域政府及民众对绿色发展的认识,以期全面提升绿色发展指数并缩小其区域差异,推动城市群绿色发展一体化进程,进一步促进环境友好型、资源节约型社会建设。研究发现,(1)2009—2014年长江中游城市群整体绿色发展指数历经了"V"型触底反弹过程,位于绿色发展库伦涅茨曲线拐点左端"两难阶段"的城市数目由2009年的6个增加至2012年的22个,并于2014年降为18个,超过半数的城市仍处于绿色发展的"两难阶段",经济与环境矛盾依然严峻。(2)城市群绿色发展的5大影响因子为:人均GDP、经济密度、第三产业增加值比重、人均当地水资源量、人均公共绿地面积;其中,人均当地水资源量与绿色发展关系由负相关向正相关演进,其余4项影响因素对绿色发展的贡献均为正效应;经济刺激对区域绿色发展的驱动效应逐年减弱,产业结构及资源状况对绿色发展的边际作用力明显提升。(3)2009—2014年襄阳市和常德市呈现差异化演变趋势,前者绿色发展指数逐年锐减,已由绿色发展库兹涅茨曲线上方滑落至曲线下方,后者反之;产业结构、资源保护和绿化治理为襄阳市绿色发展的主要制约因素。

Giving full consideration to both the benefit of resource environment and social economy,green development is a newmode of regional development in China.In this study,the green development index(GDI)of31cities in the middle reaches of theYangtze River was measured by the entropy-weight TOPSIS method,and the causes of the differentiated patterns were analyzedusing the theory of environmental Kuznets curve(EKC).Besides,we further introduced the spatial spillover effects of theinfluencing factors.The study aims to deepen the understanding of the problems and the situations faced by some cities in its greendevelopment process.It is also aimed at deepening the awareness of the regional governments and people on green development,thus comprehensively enhancing and narrowing the regional differences in GDI,promoting the integration process of greendevelopment for urban agglomerations,and further promoting the construction of a environment-friendly and resource-saving society.The study found:(1)From2009to2014,the overall GDI of the urban agglomerations in the middle reaches of the Yangtze Riverexperienced a V-shaped rebound.The number of cities at the left of the inflection point at the"dilemma stage"of the EKC increasesfrom6in2009to22in2012,and the final change in2014was18.More than half of the city is still at the"dilemma stage"in greendevelopment.Therefore,the contradiction between economic and environmental remains critical.(2)The5major influencing factorsof green development in urban agglomerations are:Per capita GDP,economic density,proportion of added value of tertiary industry,per capita local water resources,and per capita public green area.The relationship between the local water resources and the greendevelopment evolves from negative correlation to positive correlation,and the other4influencing factors are positively related to thecontribution of green development.The driving effect of economic stimulus on regional green development has been weakened yearby year,and the marginal force of industrial structure and resource situation has been obviously improved.And(3)from2009to2014,Xiangyang City and Changde City have experienced differential evolution.The GDI of the former city declines sharply yearby year.It has slipped from the upper part to the lower part of the EKC,while the latter is on the contrary.Industrial structure,resource protection and greening management become the the main constraints for the green development of Xiangyang City.