侦查情报分析中的动机性推理及其偏差修正

Motivated Reasoning in the Analysis of Criminal Investigation Intelligence and its Bias Correction

侦查情报分析中的动机性推理会产生多种偏差,导致侦查人员为强化原有观念而有选择性、方向性地搜集和分析情报信息。对此展开研究有助于侦查人员强化对此种信息处理方式的认知和防范,提升情报分析的准确性。通过对动机性推理的属性及其研究现状的考察发现,侦查情报分析中此类偏差的典型样态包括先入为主偏差、关系认知偏差、权威服从偏差等。强化情报分析人员认知选择能力训练、革新小组情报信息研判模式、落实过错责任追究机制等可有效削弱和降低此类偏差对情报分析的不良影响。

There are many kinds of bias in the motivated reasoning in the intelligence analysis,which results in theselective and directional collection and analysis of the intelligence by the investigators in order to strengthen the originalidea.This study will help investigators to strengthen this information processing method of awareness and preventionand to improve the accuracy of intelligence analysis.Based on the investigation of the nature of the motivated reasoningand its related research,this paper points out the typical patterns of such bias in the intelligence analysis,such aspreconceived bias,relational cognitive bias and authority obedience bias,and then puts forward the correction strategy.Strengthening the training of cognitive ability of intelligence analysts,reforming group intelligence information researchmodel and implementing accountability mechanism of fault liability can effectively weaken and reduce the negativeimpact of such bias on the intelligence analysis.