基于时间序列的我国工商管理文献数量趋势分析

The China's Industrial and Commercial Management Literature Trend Analysis Basing on the Number of Time Series

某研究领域每年发表文献数量可以反映出该领域学术研究的理论发展及受关注程度。工商管理是管理学科门类下的一个重要分支,本文通过收集1980-2015年中国知网上以"工商管理"为关键词收录的文献数据,应用Eviews软件进行分析,建立时间序列ARMA模型,并在此基础上对工商管理文献数量进行分析和预测,结果表明,整体而言,我国工商管理领域的文献数量在逐年增多,且在未来五年内,呈现稳步增长的趋势,但增长幅度较为缓慢。

The number of published literature can reflect the academic research in the field of theory development and the degree of attention.In this paper,through collecting1980-2015of CNKI online"business management"as keywords of literature data,through E-views software to carry on the analysis,set up time seriesARMA model,on the basis of the analysis and forecast on the number of business management literature,the results show that,China's industrial and commercial management literature number increased year by year,and inthe next five years,present the trend of steady growth,but growth is relatively slow.