水文站洪水预报的不确定性来源分析

Analysis of the Uncertainty Sources of flood Forecasting in Hydrological Stations

近年来,各国更加注重对洪水的预报理论和预报方法的研究,但鲜少有学者对洪水预报不确定性的来源进行分析。众所周知,水文预测中的不确定性包括自然环境变幻莫测、引用资料不准确、模型参数及其结构的不准确性三个方面。分析水文站洪水预报中的不确定性来源,可有效指导和改进洪水预报理论的应用,提高预报的准确性。

In recent years,countries have paid more attention to the study of flood forecasting theories and methods,but few scholars have analyzed the sources of flood forecasting uncertainty.It is well known that the uncertainties inhydrological forecasting include three aspects:the unpredictable nature environment,inaccurate reference data,andinaccurate model parameters and their structure.Analysis of the uncertainty sources in flood forecasting of hydrological stations can effectively guide and improve the application of flood forecasting theory and improve the accuracy ofprediction.