基于脱钩与VEC模型的唐山市经济发展的环境响应分析

Environmental Response Analysis of Tangshan City's Economic Development Based on Decoupling and VEC Model

论文以脱钩模型为工具,判定了1992年—2014年唐山市经济发展的脱钩状态轨迹演化,结果表明:1992年—2014年,唐山市经济发展与污染物排放之间共有11个年份表现为强脱钩状态,2个年份表现为弱脱钩状态,证明唐山市经济增长过程中,环境压力主体呈现下降或是缓慢增长状态。通过Johansen协整检验和向量误差分析(VEC)挖掘经济与环境各指标间的相互作用关系,结果表明:GDP是影响工业SO2排放的直接原因;GDP与化学需氧量、工业SO2之间保持均衡关系,有利于唐山经济与环境的协调发展;而保持GDP与工业烟尘排放量的均衡关系,则不利于各变量指标的增长,表明唐山经济的增长一定程度上还是依赖于物质的投入和排放。

First,the article adapts the decoupling model,and terminates the evolution of the decoupling statetrajectory of Tangshan economic development from1992to2014.The results illustrated that altogether11yearsshowed a strong decoupling state,2years showed weak in the economic development and pollutant emissionsof Tangshan City,which proves that in the process of economic growth,environmental pressure subjects showeddecline or slow growth.Johansen co-integration test and vector error analysis(VEC)are used to explore theinteraction between economic and environmental indicators,and the results show that GDP is the direct cause ofindustrial SO2emissions,maintain a balanced relationship with chemical oxygen demand and industrial SO2isbenefit for the coordination between economic and environment.While,maintain the equilibrium relationshipbetween GDP and industrial soot emissions is not conductive to the growth of the variable index,indicating that tosome extent,the economic growth of Tangshan depends on material inputs and emissions.