库尔德问题与中东局势

The Kurdish Problem in Middle East Context

库尔德问题是中东地区长期悬而未决的难题,反映出中东地区复杂的民族矛盾,其实质是民族不平等而引发的库族反抗及争取独立建国的斗争。库族独立建国努力与土耳其、伊拉克、叙利亚、伊朗四国维护国家统一形成尖锐矛盾。库族独立运动历程充斥曲折与苦难。1991年海湾战争使库族独立运动焕发生机。2011年爆发的所谓"阿拉伯之春"及叙利亚、伊拉克乱局使库族独立运动呈现崛起势头,直接关乎叙利亚和伊拉克两国的统一与分裂,对土耳其徐图坐大中东构成掣肘。美俄及各自地区伙伴竞相利用库尔德问题,以维护自身利益或增扩博弈筹码。展望未来,"库尔德斯坦"独立建国虽受到内外因素制约,然而伊北、叙北库族仍执意推进,恐将对地区格局形成强力冲击。

The Kurdish problem has long haunted the Middle East.It reflects the complex regional ethnic conflicts that has given rise to the Kurdish resistance and independence movement.The'Arab Spring'and the following Syrian and Iraqi crises have boosted the movement,which puts the unity of Syria and of Iraq at stake,and has handicapped Turkey’s intention to gradually play a dominant role in the Middle East.The United States,Russia and regional countries such as Turkey and Iran have been eagerly leveraging the Kurdish problem,intending to maintain their interests or prevail in the strategic competition.The Kurdistan independence movement will be constrained by both internal and external factors in the future,but Kurds’effective advance in northern Iraq and northern Syria would have a strong impact on the regional landscape.