北京地面沉降发展新趋势初步分析

Research in the new trends of Beijing land subsidence

地面沉降是北京平原区主要地质灾害之一。本文通过分析北京市地面沉降监测系统多年获取的大量监测研究成果,对北京市地面沉降的历史和现状进行了总结,在此基础上初步分析和研究了沉降发展出现的新趋势。通过研究认为:北京市地面沉降仍然处于快速发展阶段,而随着降水量的变化和南水的持续供应,以及地面沉降防治措施的逐渐落实,北京市地下水开采逐步开始减少,地面沉降速率出现阶段性拐点,区域沉降速率和中心沉降速率均出现减缓趋势,北京市平原区地面沉降总体减缓。但是,随着沉降的持续发展和区域间不均匀性的进一步增加,北京市地面沉降带来的问题会在未来较长的时期持续存在。

Land subsidence is one of the main geological disasters in the Beijing plain.It is due to urban development,and restricts the rapid expansion of the city.In this paper,by analyzing and summarizing monitoring data from the landsubsidence monitoring system in Beijing,we summarize the history and current situation of Beijing land subsidence,examining new trends.Our research shows that land subsidence in Beijing is still in the stage of rapid development.However,due to changes in precipitation and the continuous supply of water from the south,along with the continualdecrease in groundwater exploitation because of the implementation of the Beijing subsidence prevention policy,an inflectionpoint in the subsidence rate appears,with the trend showing a deceleration in the regional and central subsidence rate anda mitigation of land subsidence in the Beijing plain.However,with the development of subsidence and the further increase inregional subsidence heterogeneity,the problems caused by land subsidence in Beijing will exist for a long time.