温室气体减排方法下多电源区域的减排分析

Analysis of carbon emission reduction in multi-power areas under the greenhouse gas emission reduction method

通过分析电力供需、CO_2排放限额值和能源供应与经济目标值的联动效应,构建CCER和NEM等碳减排机制下系统成本最优化的规划模型,并在不可规避的风险条件下寻求系统最优成本与CO_2排放量的制衡点.结果表明:在碳减排机制下,燃煤电厂、燃油电厂、生物质电厂、风电和水电的扩建容量分别200、200、100、450和300MW,CO_2总排放量为[208.15,275.38]×10~6t,燃煤和燃油电厂排放的CO_2量占总排放量的[82.8%,87.9%].此外,CCER机制和NEM机制能精确挖掘出多电源类型的CO_2排放潜力,在CCER机制下,各规划期内CO_2减排量分别为[5.83,6.12]×10~6t、[8.95,9.78]×10~6t和[11.57,14.22]×10~6t,NEM机制能有效促进源端清洁能源的发展和扩建.碳减排机制有利于实现"高碳化"向"低碳化"发展的目标,便于决策者制定"能源-经济-环境"三位一体化的最佳方案.

In this paper,we analyzed the linkage relationship between the electric supply and demand,CO2emission limit value and resource supply and economic target value,so that the cost optimization programming model could be built under the CCER and CDM mechanism.The balance point would be found between the optimal cost of the system and the CO2emissions in the inevitable risk condition.The results showed that coal-fired power plant,oil-fired power plant,biomass power plant,wind power and hydropower would increase expansion capacity of200MW,200MW,100MW,450MW and300MW,the total CO2emissions was[208.15,275.38]×106t,emissions of CO2by coal-fired and oil-fired power plant accounted for total emissions of[82.8%,87.9%].In addition,CCER and NEM could accurately dig CO2reduction potential out in the multi-power areas,for example,under the CCER mechanism,CO2emission reduction were[5.83,6.12]×106t,[8.95,9.78]×106t and[11.57,14.22]×106t each period,at the same time,NEM mechanism could effectively promote the clean energy development and expansion.Carbon emission reduction mechanism was conducive to realizing the goal of"high carbon"to"low carbon",so that the decision-makers could formulate a scheme of“energyeconomy-environment"