计及注入转移分布因子估计误差的鲁棒实时调度

Robust Real-Time Dispatch Considering the Injection Shift Factor Estimation Errors

注入转移分布因子是电网运行分析中的一种重要的线性化灵敏度因子,常用以校验一定发电计划下输电支路的潮流安全。注入转移分布因子的估计误差,会造成对支路潮流估计的偏差,从而威胁电网的安全运行。提出一种可以计及电网注入转移分布因子估计误差的电网实时鲁棒调度方法。首先利用实时量测数据,基于贝叶斯线性回归理论建立注入转移分布因子的概率估计模型,并求解获得注入转移分布因子的误差区间。进而,以电网运行经济性为目标,构建同时考虑节点注入功率扰动及注入转移分布因子估计误差的实时调度模型,并基于Soyster鲁棒优化方法,给出了模型的求解算法。通过对6节点系统、IEEE 118节点系统及IEEE 300节点系统的测试计算与分析,验证了方法的有效性。

Injection shift factors(ISFs)are important linear sensitivity factors in power gridoperation analysis.They are commonly used in the security verification of branch power flow with acertain power generation dispatch plan.The estimation errors of ISFs easily result in the deviation ofbranch power flow calculation,and further threaten the power grid operation security.Accordingly,arobust real-time dispatching method considering the estimation errors of ISFs is proposed in this paper.The probabilistic ISF estimation model based on Bayesian linear regression is firstly presented usingreal-time measurement data.Then the ISF error intervals are acquired by solving the estimation model.Aiming to minimize the system operating cost,a real-time dispatching model is built,taken into account the nodal power injection disturbance as well as the ISF estimation errors.The solvingalgorithm of the model is provided based on the Soyster robust optimization method.Calculation tests onsimple6-bus system,the IEEE118-bus system and the IEEE300-bus system validate the proposed approach.