内蒙古海河流域径流驱动力的影响因素分析

Analysis of Influencing Factors of Runoff Drive in Haihe River Basin of Inner Mongolia

随着全球人口的持续增长和社会经济的快速发展,人类对水资源的需求量不断增加,水资源逐渐发生了供不应求的状况。然而河流径流量受气候、地貌、土壤、植被等一些自然条件和人类活动的耦合作用,使径流量逐年都在变化,其改变具有一定的规律性,然而也有严重的随机性。本文提出对内蒙古海河流域径流驱动力的影响因素分析研究。首先,建立河流径流量驱动力的变化的指标评价体系,利用滑动平均法分析径流量的变化规律;其次,采用秩次相关法对径流规律进行检查,在此基础之上,建立河流径流量驱动力因素与影响该因素变化的多元线性回归函数关系表达式,通过求解最终获知内蒙古海河流域径流驱动力的特征变化趋势。实验证明,文中方法能够准确分析2005年来内蒙古海河流域径流驱动力的特征变化趋势,为合理整治该区域水文环境问题提供理论依据。

With the continuous growth of the global population and the rapid development of society andeconomy,the demand for water resources is increasing.However,the coupling effect of river runoffaffected by climate,topography,soil,vegetation and other natural conditions and human activities,therunoff are changing year by year,with some regularity change,but there are also serious randomness.Inthis paper,the influence factors of runoff drive in Inner Mongolia Haihe River Basin are analyzed.Firstly,the evaluation index system of river runoff change driving force,the analysis of runoff variation ofthe moving average method;secondly,using rank correlation method to inspect the runoff,on this basis,the establishment of river runoff driving force and the influence factors of the multiple linear regressionfactors change function expression,through to solve the final drive that variation trends of runoff in HaiheRiver Basin of Inner Mongolia.The experimental results show that the proposed method can accuratelyanalyze the trend of the change of runoff driving forces in the Haihe River Basin in Inner Mongolia in2005,and provide a theoretical basis for the reasonable regulation of the regional hydrologicalenvironment.