汇率市场化、宏观审慎管理与跨境资本流动:基于动态随机一般均衡分析

Exchange Rate Marketization, Macro Prudential Policy and Cross-border Capital Flow:An Analysis based on Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium

跨境资本流出会对本国经济带来紧缩效应,且随着资本账户开放程度的增加,不利影响会越来越大,社会福利损失也会增大;汇率市场化能够明显降低资本流动冲击引起的经济波动,带来较小的社会福利损失;宏观审慎政策可以起到逆周期"以丰补歉"的作用,降低经济受到资本流动冲击的影响,以防止系统性金融风险的发生,在维护金融稳定的同时保证经济平稳增长,减少社会福利损失。

The research results show that cross-border capital outflow will bring a tightening effect on the domestic economy,and with the increase of capital account openness,adverse effects will be more and more,the loss of social welfare will increase;the exchange rate market can significantly reduce economic fluctuations caused by the impact of capital flows,much less the loss of social welfare;macro Prudential policy can the inverse action cycle“to make”,reduce the economy affected by the impact of capital flow,to prevent systemic financial risk,to ensure steady economic growth in the maintenance of financial stability at the same time,resulting in less loss of social welfare.