印度货物贸易现状、国际竞争力及发展趋势

The international competitiveness and development trend of India's merchandise trade

本文首先从贸易总量和贸易结构两方面对印度货物贸易现状进行分析,之后运用显示性比较优势指数和贸易竞争优势指数对印度货物贸易的国际竞争力进行研究,研究表明:印度在国际竞争中具有优势的货物主要为初级产品中的食品和活动物以及劳动密集型产品。继而得出,未来短期内印度货物贸易发展趋势有三个显著特点:(1)主要货物贸易伙伴不会有大的变化,中国仍将是印度第一大贸易伙伴;(2)主要货物贸易地区变化不大,贸易重心仍为东北亚、东盟和海合会地区;(3)在国际竞争中的优势产品仍将以劳动密集型产品以及初级产品中的食品和活动物为主。最后,针对印度货物贸易发展可能对中国造成的影响,给中国相关企业提出了两条建议。

This paper first analyzed the current situation of India's merchandisetrade.Then through the application of revealed comparative advantage indexand trade competitive edge index,it studied the international competitivenessof Indian merchandise trade,which indicates that primary commoditiessuch as food and live animals and labor intensive products are major competitivegoods of India in international competition.Therefore,we summarizedthree distinct features of Indian goods trade development trend within a shortperiod.Firstly,India's major goods trade partners won’t change much.Chinawill remain to be the largest trade partner of India.Secondly,the main businessarea won’t change much.Northeast Asia,ASEAN and GCC will still be thecenter of Indian trading.Thirdly,India will still have big competitive edgein the primary commodity and labor intensive products in international market.Finally,this paper put two suggestions to relevant Chinese enterprises.