万泉河加积坝下游农村地区洪涝脆弱性研究

Flood Vulnerability Assessment of Rural Areas in the Wanquan River Downstream of the Jiaji Dam

针对我国农村地区防洪减灾研究较为薄弱的现状,根据地形数据、河道断面数据以及水文数据,采用二维水动力模型对万泉河下游农村地区洪水淹没情况进行了分析.在此基础上,分别以乡镇和行政村为研究单元,选择反映农村地区社会脆弱性和自然脆弱性的13个指标构建脆弱性指标体系,采用模糊综合评价法对研究区域脆弱性进行了定量研究,并绘制了脆弱性分布图.结果表明:万泉河下游农村地区暴露度较高,敏感性较低,应对能力较弱,综合分析整体脆弱性较低;区域脆弱性差异较大,不同地区脆弱性有着不同的驱动因素.

In view of little current research on flood control and mitigation in rural areas of China,this paper examinedflood submerge range in the rural area of Wanquan river downstream using terrain data,river section data andhydrological data with two-dimensional hydrodynamic model.The research units in this paper were villages andtowns.Firstly,for each unit,the values of thirteen indices reflecting social vulnerability and nature vulnerabilitywere computed.Secondly,based on the indices,vulnerability was quantitatively studied using fuzzy syntheticevaluation.The overall vulnerability of each unit was calculated and plotted in GIS to obtain the vulnerability distributionmap.The analysis results suggest high exposure,low susceptibility and adaptive capacity and relatively lowoverall vulnerability of the research area.The distribution of vulnerability in the study area is not uniform.The drivingfactor for each town is different.