基于GPD的夏季空调室外计算温度确定方法

Methods for Summer Outdoor Design Temperatures of Air-Conditioning Based on Generalized Pareto Distribution

为以概率方式确定空调室外计算温度,提出用广义帕累托分布(GPD)描述室外空气湿球和干球极端高温数据概率分布的方法.以天津市30年气象数据为基础,建立了极端高温数据的GPD模型,以此确定了历年平均不保证50,h的空调室外计算温度.从数据采集频率、气候变化和地域气候类型适用性3个角度验证了GPD方法的适用性.结果表明:GPD密度曲线与经验分布曲线吻合度较高,对天津市而言,GPD法确定的空调室外计算温度与"规范法"差值不大于0.1,℃;GPD法对气象数据采集频率不敏感,分别以逐时和定时数据为统计基础确定的室外计算温度相差最大的是干球温度,差值为0.1,℃;此外,GPD法可以准确反映气候变暖带来的室外计算温度变化,并且对不同地区不同特征的气候也具有良好的适应性.综上,GPD法可以用于空调室外计算温度的统计确定.

To determine the air-conditioning outdoor design temperature,the generalized Pareto distribution(GPD)was used to study the probability distribution of outdoor air extremely high wet-and dry-bulb temperatures observationdata.Firstly,taking Tianjin as an example,based on the30years climate data,the GPD model of extremelyhigh temperatures was established and the air-conditioning outdoor design temperatures were calculated with50hnon-guaranteed.And then,the applicability of GPD method was verified from three perspectives:data acquisitionfrequency,climate change and climate types.The results indicate that GPD density curve has a good agreement withempirical distribution curve in Tianjin.The difference in outdoor air-conditioning design temperatures detween GPDmethod and standard method is no more than0.1,℃.GPD method is insensitive to data acquisition frequency.Besides,the design temperatures on the bases of hourly data and timing data are calculated by GPD method,thebiggest difference being0.1,℃for dry-bulb temperature.GPD method can reflect the influence of climate change andis suitable for describing the probability distribution of meteorological parameters with different climate features.Insummary,GPD method can be applied to statistical determination of summer outdoor design temperatures of airconditioning.