国际贸易与内生经济增长——基于DGE理论分析与实证检验

International Trade and Endogenous Growth——Based on DGE Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Test

本文基于开放条件下的内生经济增长理论,构建居民、贸易与非贸易企业三部门的动态一般均衡理论分析框架,演绎了出口贸易、消费品与中间产品进口贸易以及加工贸易对经济增长的效应及其内生作用机理,并采用动态面板数据模型GMM估计方法予以实证检验。研究发现,消费品进口贸易对经济增长具有相同单位的边际制约效应;出口贸易通过直接与间接拉动效应以及收入效应促进经济增长,中间产品进口贸易与加工贸易通过直接与间接推动效应以及收入效应促进经济增长;另外,出口贸易与加工贸易促进经济增长还存在"乘数"现象。本文的发现对于我国经济发展"新常态"背景下的贸易政策改革与创新具有启示意义。

A dynamic general equilibrium theory analysis framework is built including three residents,trade and non-trade enterprises,based on endogenous growth theory under the open economy conditions.We deduce the effects and mechanisms of export,consumer goods and intermediate products import trade,processing trade on growth,it is empirically tested by dynamic panel data model and GMM estimation method.The results show consumer goods import trade has an equal marginal restriction effect on growth,export trade promote economic growth through direct and indirect pull effect and income effect,intermediate products import and processing trade promote economic growth through direct and indirect push effect and income effect,in addition,there is a“multiplier”phenomenon in the export and processing trade to promote growth.It is enlightenment for trade policy reform and innovation under the“new normal”of China’s economic growth.