“一带一路”视角下中国-海合会FTA经济效应研究——基于GTAP的模拟分析

Study on the Economic Effect of China-GCC FTA from the Perspective of “The Belt and Road”——Simulation Analysis Based on GTAP

本文基于最新的GTAP9数据库,将石化产业作为敏感产业并设定3种不同的模拟情景分析了中国-海合会FTA对不同国家的经济影响,结果显示:中国-海合会FTA对成员国有较强的正面效应,但对双方共同的主要贸易伙伴和"一带一路"其他沿线国家产生不同程度的反向冲击。中国和海合会应加快谈判进程以早日获得贸易自由化收益,并规避受损国家可能的暗中掣肘,同时发挥中国-海合会FTA的示范效应和"多米诺骨牌"效应,拓展与"一带一路"沿线FTA的广度和深度,深入推进"一带一路"倡议。

Based on the latest GTAP9database,the petrochemical industry as a sensitive industry and set three different scenarios to analyze the economic effect of China-GCC FTA on different countries.The results show that China-GCC FTA has strong positive effect on members.The posi tive effect of the two sides,but the main common trading partners and other countries along“The Belt and Road”have different degrees of reverse effect.China and GCC should speed up the negotiation process to gain the benefi ts of trade liberalization at the earliest possible time and avoid possible underhand constraints of the damaged countries.At the same time,China and GCC should play a demonstrative and“Domino effect”,and expand the breadth and depth of FTA along the way of“The Belt and Road”.