基于概率模型的攻防效能估算与仿真分析

Estimation and Simulation Analysis Based on Probabilistic Model for the Effectiveness of Penetration and Defense

建立了一个用于计算弹道导弹突防效能的概率模型,根据导弹攻防对抗中以事件概率、而非以具体结果为指标的评判方式,估算实现突防目的所需要的弹道导弹数量,考虑防御系统的可靠性问题,以及弹头可能采取的对抗措施。最后通过仿真实验的方法予以验证,并对结果进行分析,为实际作战部署和规划提供有价值的参考。

A probabilistic model for calculating ballistic missile penetration effectiveness is developed.The objective for judgment is stated as a probability of events during the engagement,not a specific result.Based on this point,the reliability of defense system,and counter-measures that may be used by ballistic missiles is taken into account.Estimation of the amount of ballistic missiles is made to achieve the objective of penetration.At the end of paper,simulation experiments are presented to examine the model.And analyses for simulation results were given which might be available for missile deployment and programming.