禽流感对农户养殖收入的影响及其差异分析

Impact of avian influenza on farmers' income and its difference

基于中国农村固定观察点系统的大样本数据,分析了2004―2012年禽流感对农户养殖收入的总效应,并采用平衡面板数据的滞后三期数据分析禽流感影响的滞后性,选择多个指标多层次多角度分析禽流感在空间上对农户养殖收入的影响,同时根据农户是否拥有家禽养殖专用性资产分析禽流感对农户养殖收入影响的差异。结果显示:禽流感对农户养殖收入造成了较大的负面冲击;从影响深度上看,这种冲击不仅影响了农户当年的养殖收入也影响到了后几年的养殖收入;从影响广度上看,这种冲击是以疫地为圆心,呈网状辐射;不同规模养禽农户由于拥有的家禽养殖专用性资产不同,受到疫情的影响程度存在较大差异。

In this paper,we use China's rural fixed observation system of large sample data,taking the2004―2012epidemic as an example,to analyze the total effect of poultry income in poultry farmers.On the basis,we analyze thehysteresis of avian influenza by using the lag three phases data of panel data,and discuss the impact of avian flu on thefarmer's income in space by multiple indicators,multiple levels and multiple angles.At the same time,we analyze theimpact on farmers’income according to whether farmers have the special assets of poultry farming.The results showthat the avian influenza causes a great negative impact on poultry farmers’income.From the time perspective,thisimpact lasts from current period to the later years.From the space perspective,this impact is reticular radiation taking theepidemic situation as the center.From the farmer perspective,the impact varies because they have different fixed assetsinvestment.