羊屠宰环节布鲁氏菌病检疫漏检的初步定量风险评估

Preliminary Quantitative Risk Assessment on Failed Detection of Brucellosis in Sheep Slaughterhouse

[目的 ]评估屠宰环节布鲁氏菌病漏检对屠宰从业人员和消费环节羊肉消费者的潜在健康风险及其干预措施。[方法 ]利用屠宰环节肉品风险评估专项监测中的定量监测数据,以及文献检索数据、专家咨询和调研结果,采用@RISK软件,分析估计屠宰环节布鲁氏菌病检疫漏检情况下的感染人数和消费者因烹调不当发生布鲁氏菌感染的风险。[结果 ]构建了屠宰环节布鲁氏菌病漏检感染风险模型。假设接触漏检羊感染布鲁氏菌病的概率为20%,那么0.001%、0.08%、1.5%三种漏检概率可能导致的感染人数分别为0~4人、0~114人和7~1 829人(90%置信区间);不同接触感染概率的感染人数有较大差异:5%概率时每年有0~541人可能感染布鲁氏菌病;60%概率时,多数情况下有155人感染布鲁氏菌病,最多可达到6 473人。应用该模型对某省居民消费漏检布鲁氏菌病羊肉后新增布鲁氏菌病感染人数的估算结果表明:按照0.1%概率计算,该省2016年度屠宰313.25万只羊可能新增布鲁氏菌病感染病例111~148例(90%置信区间)。如果因厨房生熟不分、烹调不当等因素而使感染概率提高至1%,则可能出现1 234~1 352个新增病例。[结论 ]羊屠宰环节存在布鲁氏菌病检疫漏检现象,从业人员受布鲁氏菌病感染风险较高;消费环节存在因烹调不当而导致的布鲁氏菌病感染风险;应加强养殖环节羊群布鲁氏菌病的控制和宰前检疫,提升从业人员和消费者对布鲁氏菌病危害的认知水平。

[Objective]To assess the risk and potential interventions of failed Brucellosis detection to butchering staffs in sheep slaughtering sector and to those mutton consumers.[Methods]Using the quantitative monitoring data in special monitoring of meat risk assessment project,the data of bibliographic information retrieval,the expert consultations and investigation results,the risk of Brucellosis infection due to failed detection in slaughtering sector and improper cooking of consumers in China was assessed through@RISK software analysis.[Results]The infection risk model of failed Brucellosis detection to butchering workers in slaughterhouse was established.Assuming20%people would infect the disease if contacting Brucellosis false negative animals,0~4,0~114and7~1829people would be respectively infected under the condition of three kinds of false dismissal probability including0.001%,0.08%and1.5%.In the case of different contact infection probability,the number of infection cases varied significantly.When the infection probability was5%,the infection cases were between0and541per year,when the probability reached60%,most likely155person would be infected and maximum number could be6473.Using the model to estimate the new Brucellosis infection cases after eating mutton carrying brucella in one province in2016,the results showed that,slaughtering3.1325million sheep could lead to111~148Brucellosis infection cases(90%confidence interval)in case that the infection rate was0.1%.If the infection probability increased to1%due to inseparated treatment of raw and cooked meat in kitchen or cooking habits,the new infection cases might increase to1234~1352.[Conclusion]The phenomenon of failed detection of Brucellosis in sheep slaughtering sector existed,and the risk of brucella infection to workers was rather high.In the link of consumption,risk of brucella infection also existed due to improper cooking.At last,the control of Brucellosis in breeding sector should be strengthened,as well as the quarantine before being slaughtered,and the awareness level of workers and consumers to the harm of Brucellosis should be raised.