杭州人口因素对商品住宅需求影响的实证分析——基于灰色理论

An Empirical Analysis of The Influence of Population Factors on Commodity Housing Demand——based on Grey Theory in Hangzhou

依据2005-2015年杭州市人口结构和商品住宅交易数据,运用灰色关联度理论,对杭州市人口因素对商品住宅影响进行了实证分析。研究发现:人口密度、城乡结构、二三产业就业人员比例、总抚养比、总人口、家庭户均人口规模、性别比、人均可支配收入都与住宅价格有着极强的相关性,并且对杭州市住宅需求影响排序由强及弱。其政策含义是:房开公司必须根据人口规模和结构变动调整住宅供给结构,才能促进房地产市场健康发展。

In2005-2014,based on the data of population structure and commodity housing transactionin Hangzhou,this paper makes an empirical analysis of the influence of population factors oncommodity housing in Hangzhou by using grey relational theory.The results find that populationdensity,urban and rural structure,the second,three industrial employment proportion,totaldependency ratio,the total population,the average household population size,sex ratio,per capitadisposable income and housing prices have a strong correlation,and the demand for housing inHangzhou ranks from strong and weak.Its policy implications are that housing companies must adjustthe housing supply structure according to population size and structural changes in order to promotethe healthy development of the real estate market.