城市发展与地面沉降控制耦合协调模型研究——以上海为例

Coupling coordination model research of urban development and land subsidence control: A case study of Shanghai

结合上海市实际情况,遴选出城市发展与地面沉降控制交互耦合评价指标体系。根据耦合协调关系模型,对上海市2005~2014年城市发展与地面沉降控制系统耦合度和耦合协调度进行分析,结果表明:就城市发展与地面沉降控制水平而言,上海市2005~2008年属于城市发展滞后型,2009~2014年属于地面沉降控制滞后型;就耦合度而言,上海市城市发展与地面沉降控制系统2005年处于低水平耦合时期,2006~2014年处于拮抗时期;就耦合协调度而言,上海市城市发展与地面沉降控制系统2005~2008年处于中度耦合协调阶段,2009~2014处于高度耦合协调阶段。当前,上海市城市发展和地面沉降控制已进入关键时期,需要城市发展和地面沉降控制齐头并进,使耦合系统向着磨合阶段平稳的过渡,才能实现上海市的可持续发展。

Considering the present situation of Shanghai,an interaction coupling evaluation index system of urban development and land subsidence control was selected.Based on the coupling coordination model,the coupling degree of the urban development and land subsidence control system and the coupling coordination degree of Shanghai for2005-2014are analyzed.The results show that:(1)in terms of the urban development and land subsidence control level,Shanghai belonged to the urban development lag type in2005-2008and the land subsidence control lag type in2009-2014;(2)in terms of the coupling degree,the urban development and land subsidence control system of Shanghai remained at a low coupling level in2005and during the antagonism period of2006-2014;(3)in terms of the coupling coordination degree,the urban development and land subsidence control system of Shanghai remained in a moderate coupling coordination phase in2005-2008and in a highly coupled coordination phase in2009-2014.Presently,urban development and land subsidence control of Shanghai has entered a critical period,as urban development and land subsidence control need to be considered together.Only in this way can the coupling system be smoothly transformed into the running-in stage,and the sustainable development of Shanghai be realized.