我国农村金融发展与农民收入增长的关系探究——基于1989—2014年数据的实证分析

Study on the Relationship between Rural Financial Development and Farmers' Income Growth——Analysis of Empirical Data Based on 1989—2014

基于1989—2014年数据,通过构建农村金融的规模、效率、结构与服务水平等指标来综合衡量农村金融发展水平,实证分析农村金融发展与农民收入增长的关系。结果显示:我国农村金融的规模和服务水平在长期均衡和短期波动中都会对农民收入增长有促进作用,且均为农民收入增长的格兰杰原因;农村金融结构长期会对农民收入产生抑制作用,但短期作用不明显;而农村金融效率则在长期均衡和短期波动中均会对农民收入产生负作用;在对农民收入变动的影响因素里,农村金融规模和服务的贡献率分别达到了60%和10%。最后,文章根据实证结果和理论分析,提出农村金融发展更好服务于农民增收的建议。

Based on the1989-2014time series data,the paper builds up the four indexes which are the rural financial scale,efficiency,structure and service level to measure the extent of rural financialdevelopment.It uses empirical methods to analyze the relationship between financial development and farmer income growth.The results show that rural financial scale and service have significant positive effects on farmer income growth in the long and short term,and there is a two-way Granger causality between them.The structure and efficiency of rural financial development have negative influence in the long time and they are the Granger cause of farmers'income,but only the latter still has negative influence in the short term of the variables considered,the scale and service of rural financial development make great contribution to changes in farmer income growth,of which contribution rates reach60%and10%respectively.Finally,based on the empirical results and theoretical analysis,the paper puts forward suggestions on how rural financial development serves farmers'income growth better.