气候变化对河西走廊主要农作物的影响

Impacts of Climate Change on Main Crops in the Hexi Corridor

利用1991—2014年甘肃省河西走廊5市的气温、降水数据及农作物物候期和产量资料,运用线性趋势估计法、5 a滑动平移法、灰色关联度分析法和皮尔逊相关系数法分析了河西走廊24年来的气候变化特征、农作物物候和产量的变化特征及二者之间的联系。结果表明:(1)河西走廊近24年来春季变暖变干,气温气候倾向率为0.69℃/10 a、降水为6.63 mm/10a,夏秋季节变暖变湿,气温气候倾向率为0.49℃/10 a、降水为16.83 mm/10 a,全年表现为显著变暖,降水量增加,气温气候倾向率为0.43℃/10 a、降水为59.28 mm/10 a;(2)春小麦播种期呈略微提前趋势,玉米播种期呈推后趋势,春小麦和玉米的出苗期、生长季呈缩短趋势,成熟期呈提前趋势。春小麦和玉米播种期、出苗期、成熟期、生长季与气温呈负相关,播种期与降水量呈二次曲线关系,出苗期与降水量呈负相关,成熟期、生长季与降水量呈正相关;(3)河西走廊年小麦产量总体呈显著下降趋势,嘉峪关、金昌、武威、张掖和酒泉每10年分别减少0.5×10~4 t、0.24×10~4 t、10.94×10~4 t、10.72×10~4 t和13.85×10~4 t;年玉米产量酒泉呈略微减少趋势,每10年减少0.89×10~4 t,嘉峪关、金昌、武威和张掖总体呈增加趋势,每10年分别增加0.11×10~4 t、5.22×10~4 t、24.74×10~4 t和17.27×10~4 t;河西走廊的小麦相对气象产量正负变化比较频繁,玉米相对气象产量负值变化比较明显;嘉峪关、张掖、武威小麦产量和酒泉、金昌玉米产量受气温影响略大,关联系数分别为0.694 8、0.724 6、0.748 6和0.734 4、0.683 6,酒泉、金昌小麦产量和嘉峪关、张掖、武威玉米产量受降水量影响较大,关联系数分别为0.784 9、0.739 1和0.653 7、0.645 2、0.734 6;(4)社会经济因素对农作物的影响逐渐变大,国家政策的大力实施、农业科学技术的发展和推广以及河西走廊人民的种植意愿对农作物产生了很大的影响。该研究对农业应对气候变化,合理利用气候资源,推广生长季较短的新品种作物,提高农作物的生产潜力具有较大的意义。

Based on the data of air temperature,precipitation amount,crop phenology and crop yield in5cities of the Hexi Corridorin Gansu Province from1991to2014,the climate characteristics,main crops phenology and yield change characteristics as well astheir relationship were analyzed using the linear trend estimation method,the5-year moving average method,the gray relevancymethod and the Pearson correlation coefficient method.Results showed that:(1)A significant warming and wetting trend could befound in the Hexi Corridor during the past24years,the climate inclination rates were0.43℃/10a of temperature and59.28mm/10a of precipitation.It turned warmer and drier in spring,the climate inclination rates were0.69℃/10a of temperature and6.63mm/10a of precipitation.It turned warmer and more humid in summer/autumn,the climate inclination rates were0.49℃/10a oftemperature and16.83mm/10a of precipitation.(2)The sowing period of spring wheat was slightly shifted to a earlier date.Thesowing period of maize showed a weak deferred trend.The mature period of spring wheat and maize showed a slightly advancedtrend.The emergence period and growing season of spring wheat and maize showed a curtate trend.The seeding time,emergenceperiod,mature period and the growing season of spring wheat and maize negatively correlated with air temperature.The seeding timeand precipitation amount showed a relationship of quadratic curve.The emergence period negatively correlated with precipitationamount.The mature period and growing season positively correlated with precipitation amount.(3)The annual yield of wheat in theHexi Corridor showed a significantly downward trend,and those in Jiayuguan,Jinchang,Wuwei,Zhangye and Jiuquan reduced by0.5×104t,0.24×104t,10.94×104t,10.72×104t and13.85×104t every10years.Annual maize yield in Jiuquan showed a slightlydecreasing trend,and reduced by0.89×104t,and that in Jiayuguan,Jinchang,Wuwei and Zhangye generally showed an increasingtrend,and reduced by0.11×104t,5.22×104t,24.74×104and17.27×104t respectively;The positive and negative alternations ofrelative meteorological yield of wheat in the Hexi Corridor were frequent,and the negative change of relative meteorological yield ofmaize was obvious.The wheat yield in Jiayuguan,Zhangye and Wuwei and the maize yield in Jiuquan and Jinchang were moreaffected by air temperature,the correlation coefficients were0.6948,0.7246,0.7486and0.7344,0.6836;The wheat yield inJiuquan and Jinchang and the maize yield in Jiayuguan,Zhangye and Wuwei were more affected by precipitation,the correlationcoefficients were0.7849,0.7391and0.6537,0.6452,0.7346.And(4)the impact of socio-economic factors on crops has beenincreased in recent years.The vigorous implementation of the national policy,the development and popularization of agriculturalscience and technology,and the planting willingness of the people in the Hexi Corridor have a great influence on crops.It is of greatsignificance for agriculture to cope with climate change,make a rational use of climate resources,promote new crop varieties withshorter growing season and increase the potential productivity of crops.