期刊文献+

15~30 d延伸期逐日预报在线显示平台的设计与实现 被引量:11

Design and Construction of the Daily Forecast Online-Displaying Platform for the Extended-Range of 15~30 Days
下载PDF
导出
摘要 延伸期逐日预报是近年来涌现出的新兴气象业务。详细介绍了浙江省气候中心研发的15~30 d延伸期逐日预报在线显示平台。该平台以CFSv2和DERF2.0两个气候模式的预报产品为依托,基于5日集合平均方案,运用双线性插值技术形成0.25°×0.25°格点预报产品和省、市、县(市、区)三级行政区域站点预报产品,通过绝对误差和空间相关系数两种方法开展预报检验。针对县级气象部门的精细化服务需求,设计了15~30 d预报时间序列显示界面,并通过"包络线法"和"误差线法"分别给出平均气温和降水预报的上下限。业务平台测试版试运行以来表现出较好的预报性能,以2016年4月两次持续性强降水过程为例分析了平台的预报表现,结果表明平台分别提前20 d和16 d预报出这两次过程。针对存在的问题和不足进行了探讨,指出大力发展数值模式解释应用技术和概率预报是业务平台不断走向深入的技术基石。 Daily forecast during the extended-range has become a new kind of meteorological operation in recent years.In this paper,daily forecast online-displaying platform for the extendedrange of15-30days,which designed by Zhejiang climate center,is introduced in detail.The platform can provide grid-forecast with horizontal resolution of0.25°x0.25°and stational forecast which are able to cover three types of regions at provincial-level,civic-level,and county-level,respectively,based on the forecast results produced by two climate models,the Climate Forecast System version2(CFSv2)and Dynamic Extended Range Forecast operational system version2.0(DERF2.0)and with the5-day ensemble-mean forecast strategy and bilinear-interpolation method.To satisfy the requirement of county-level meteorological bureaus,time-series of the15-30days’forecast are offered,and the envelope-line and error-bar are separately used to exhibit the upper and lower limit of daily-mean temperature and precipitation forecast.Generally speaking,the betaversion operation platform has shown good performance at its trial-run stage.It successfully predicted two durative heavy-precipitation processes in April of2016,with20-day and16-day in advance respectively.Finally,some problems and deficiencies of the current platform are raised,and furthermore interpretation application technology and statistical forecast are suggested as the fundamental basis for the future development of the operation platform.
作者 马浩 郑志海 李正泉 王阔 MA Hao;ZHENG Zhihai;LI Zhengquan;WANG Kuo(Zhejiang Climate Center,Hangzhou 310017,China;National Climate Center,Beijing 100081,China)
出处 《沙漠与绿洲气象》 2017年第4期78-85,共8页 Desert and Oasis Meteorology
基金 浙江省自然科学基金项目(LQ14D050001) 浙江省气象局预报员专项项目(2016YBY26) 浙江省气象局重点项目子项目(2014ZD06-1) 中国气象局青年英才专项共同资助
关键词 延伸期逐日预报 在线显示平台 整体架构 集合预报 个例分析 extended-range weather forecast online-displaying platform general construction ensemble forecast case study
  • 相关文献

参考文献22

二级参考文献301

共引文献809

同被引文献204

引证文献11

二级引证文献30

相关作者

内容加载中请稍等...

相关机构

内容加载中请稍等...

相关主题

内容加载中请稍等...

浏览历史

内容加载中请稍等...
;
使用帮助 返回顶部