库车日平均气温≥3℃初日与杏树开花期的关系

Relationship Between the First Day on Daily Average Temperature more than 3℃ and the Flowering of Apricot in Kuche

利用新疆阿克苏地区库车县1961—2010年日平均气温和1983—2009年杏树物候期观测资料,通过相关分析和回归分析,表明:(1)杏树的开花盛期与气温稳定通过3℃或5℃初日均呈较为显著的正相关,但与3℃初日的相关性更好。(2)1961—2010年,库车县3℃初日呈不显著的提早趋势,且各年代际间3℃初日呈波动变化趋势,其中20世纪80年代出现最晚,2001—2010年出现最早。(3)杏树开花盛期的日期呈显著提早的趋势,且呈逐年代提早的趋势。其中2001年以来比20世纪90年代提早了5 d,比1983—1990年提早了7 d。(4)利用1983—2009年3℃初日与杏树的开花盛期日期资料,建立了库车杏树的开花期预测模型,2010—2016年预测结果经检验平均绝对误差为8%,平均预测准确率在83%~95%之间,因此,该模式可作为库车县杏树开花盛期日期预报的业务手段之一,其研究结果可为当地杏树开花物候期的预测以及春季农业生产管理提供科学依据。

The daily average temperature data from1961to2010and phenological data of Apricot from1983to2009in Kuche County of Akesu Region of Xinjiang were analyzed by correlation analysis and regression analysis.The results showed that:①the relationship between the peak flowering of Apricot and the steadily pass first day on3℃or5℃critical temperature were more significant positive correlation,but the better correlation existed between the peak flowering of Apricot and the first day on3℃critical temperature.②the trend of first day on3℃critical temperature was advanced insignificantly from1961to2010,being a fluctuating trend in the inter-decadal scale.The latest and the earliest were appeared in1980’s and2001-2010,respectively.③the day of peak flowering of apricot also had a sinificant advanced trend in decade from1983to2009,which it was earlier by5days since2001than that in1990’s and it was earlier by7days since2001than that from1983to1990.④the prediction model on the day of peak flowering of Apricot in Kuche was build.The results of model test showed that the average absolute error was8%and it’s forecast accuracy was between83%and95%from2010to2016.Therefore,the model could be used as one of the predictor for the day of peak flowering of Apricot in Kuche.These results could provide a scientific basis for the local Apricot flowering forecasts and agricultural production and management in Spring.