基于Leslie模型分析全面二孩政策对人口结构影响

Analysis of the Impact of Universal Two-child Policy on Population Structure based on Leslie Model

为探究全面二孩政策是否影响我国人口结构。本文根据1996-2015年我国人口结构情况,构建人口结构预测的Leslie模型,分别在未实施全面二孩政策和实施全面二孩政策两种不同条件下对2020-2030年人口结构的育龄妇女总数、劳动力人口总数、老龄人口总数三个指标进行预测,并通过对预测结果进行对比分析,定量探究全面二孩政策对我国人口结构的影响。验证结果为:与未实施全面二孩政策相比,实施全面二孩政策后我国育龄妇女人数增多,劳动人口下降速度变缓,老龄人口上升速率变缓。其结论为:从长远来看,实施全面二孩政策在一定程度上会促进人口结构优化,但不能从根本上扭转劳动力适龄人口减少和老年人群规模扩大的趋势。所以想要实现政策的预期目标,还必须进一步完善相应的配套措施。

In order to analyse the impact of universal two-child policy on population structure,this article compares three indexes:the sum of women in childbearing age,labour force and aging population in2020-2030under two different policies,birth control policy and universal two-child policy via Leslie model based on China's population structure in2020-2030.Thus we can do quantitative research on its impact on China's population structure by comparing and analysing the predicted result.This result has shown the growth of women in childbearing age,decrease of labour force declining speed and the aging population rising rate.We have got the conclusion that universal two-child policy do benefit in population structure optimization while unable to solve declining labour force and aged tendency of population from the basis.Therefore,future improvement of supporting measures shall be done to reach the anticipated politic target.