城市化质量与住宅价格的互动关系研究——基于2006-2013年区域中心城市数据的分析

Research on Interacting Relation between Urbanizationand and House Price:Based on the data of Regional Center Cities of 2006-2013

文章从产业城市化质量、人口城市化质量与土地城市化质量等方面综合考察城市化质量与城市住宅价格之间的互动关系,并运用2006-2013年区域中心城市的数据进行了面板自回归模型的验证。从结果看:第一,我国区域中心城市普遍存在着土地城市化过快以及伴随住宅价格上涨的现象。第二,在这种背景下,人口城市化与土地城市化对住宅价格上涨起到了推动作用,而产业城市化有助于稳定住宅价格。第三,高企的住宅价格在短期内大幅降低了人口城市化与土地城市化,但是这一冲击很快转为正向效应;相反,高企的住宅价格虽然短期内刺激了产业城市化发展,但是长期却发挥了抑制作用。第四,城市化协调发展与质量提升有助于稳定住宅价格,而住宅价格过快上涨则直接妨害了城市化协调发展与质量提升。

The essay divides urbanization quality into industrial urbanization,population urbanization andland urbanization,and analyzesthe interacting mechanism betweenurbanizationand house price,and also usesthe data of regional center cities of2006-2013and PVAR model to test.The results show:first,land urbaniza?tion develops too fast and house price grows largely occur in most of center cities;second,under this,populationand land urbanization boost house price and industrial urbanization impedes house price;third,high house pricelowers population and land urbanization in short term but pushes them in long term,however,high house priceenhances industrial urbanization shortly but has negative effects in long term;finally,the coordinative develop?ment of urbanization help house price stay stable,but increasing house price hinders the coordinative develop?ment of urbanization.