基于贝叶斯改进模型在供电可靠性预测中的应用

Reliability Prediction of Power Network Based on Improved Bayesian Model

供电可靠性预测评估可以更有效地起到对供电系统运行管理的指导作用。所以,供电可靠性的研究预测具有较大的意义。在研究贝叶斯常均值模型预测的基础上,提出改进的贝叶斯模型优化算法。利用C++编程软件对河南省供电可靠性预测进行分析,预测评估出2007-2016年河南省供电可靠率,验证贝叶斯改进模型的有效性。

Reliability prediction of power Networkcan effecton the power system operation management moreeffectively.So reliability prediction of power Network is of great importance.Based on analyzing the features of constant average Bayesian Model,an optimization algorithm based on improved Bayesian Model isproposed.By using C++programming software,analyzed reliability prediction of Henan power network,andforecast reliability of Henan Power network from2007to2016.The results of applying the proposed methodshow that the optimization algorithm is effective.