从广义财政角度看中国经济回暖原因及未来空间

The Reasons and Future Space for China's Economic Rebound from the Perspective of Broad Fiscal

当前国内经济持续回暖,维持稳中趋升的走势,外需的改善恐怕只能解释部分原因,2016年广义财政支出大幅增加可能是被忽视的一大重要因素,而且,财政投入对拉动经济增长存在一定的时滞,正如PPI的回升对民间投资增速的提升存在一定时滞一样。本文提出广义财政支出这一概念,并以此来分析它与经济增长的关系,以及未来广义财政支出继续发挥作用的条件与空间。

At present,the domestic economy continues to pick up,maintaining steady-upward trend.Theimprovement of external demand may only explain some of the reasons,and one of the most important factors that maybe overlooked is broad fiscal expenditure increased significantly in2016.And financial investment has a certain lagin stimulating economic growth,as PPI rebound has some lag in enhancing the growth rate of private investment.Thispaper puts forward the concept of broad fiscal expenditure,analyzes its relationship with economic growth and thecondition and space that it will continue to play a role in the future.