我国地方政府债务风险评估及预警研究

Research on the risk assessment and early warning of local government debt of China

通过构建地方政府债务风险评估指标体系,基于聚类分析和因子分析,对我国30个省份2013年的地方政府债务进行了风险评估,并在此基础上构建我国地方政府债务风险预警模型。研究发现,目前我国地方政府债务风险水平整体处于可控范围之内,区域经济发展水平、地方政府债务结构和规模以及地方政府的偿债能力是影响我国地方政府债务风险水平的重要原因。地方政府要切实解决债务风险问题,关键在于明确债务责任,合理举债,完善债务信息披露制度并建立科学的债务风险预警系统。

Through the construction of local government debt risk evaluation index system,and the method of clusteranalysis and factor analysis,we make a risk assessment on the local government debt of30provinces of China in2013toconstruct a local government debt risk warning model.The results show that,at present,China’s local government debtrisk level is in the controllable range overall,the level of regional economic development,the structure and size of the localgovernment debt,as well as the solvency of local government are important factors that affect the level of local governmentdebt risk.In order to practically solve the problem of debt risk,the local government should make clear its liabilities,makereasonable loans,perfect the system of debt information disclosure,and establish a scientific early-warning system of debtrisk.