人口-土地-经济-社会城镇化水平测度及耦合协调分析——基于31个省份面板数据的实证

Measurement of Population-Land-Economy-Society Urbanization Level and Coupling Coordination Analysis——Empirical Research Based on Panel Data of 31 Provinces

运用主成分分析法对中国省级城镇化水平进行定量评价,结果显示:从整体上看,中国省级城镇化发展呈现两极分化趋势,经济发达地区城镇化水平高,经济欠发达地区城镇化水平偏低;省级城镇化发展的地区差异明显,但地区城镇化发展的动态演变过程基本一致;除华东波动幅度较大以外,其他地区波动较小。全国绝大多数省份城镇化内部耦合协调性波动上升,2007年—2015年间全国各省份城镇化子系统均处失调状态;全国七大区域(除2009年)城镇化协调性稳步上升;两两子系统间的耦合协调度存在空间分异现象。据此,论文提出推进新型城镇化发展的政策建议。

The paper used the principal component analysis(PCA)to quantitatively evaluate Chinese provincial urbanization level.The results revealed that overall,there is a trend of polarization showed in Chinese provincial urbanization development―high level of urbanization in developed areas,low level of urbanization in less developed areas;regional differences in provincial urbanization are obvious,but the dynamic evolution process through in region urbanization development of different areas remains the same;in addition to the large fluctuation of the east China,the evolution in other parts of the country tends to be less volatile.The internal coupling coordination of urbanization wave rise in most provinces,the subsystem of urbanization in various provinces between2007and2015were in disorder;the seven major regions(except2009)coordination of urbanization has risen steadily;the coupling coordination degree between the two-two subsystem exists space differentiation phenomenon.On this basis,policy suggestions for promoting the development of the new urbanization are introduced.