基于IOWGA算子的中国碳排放量的组合预测

Combination Forecasting of China's Carbon Emissions Based on IOWGA Operator

中国的经济已经进入新常态,为了统筹兼顾经济和环境,政府已将碳减排提到了前所未有的战略高度。碳排放量的精确预测可以为碳减排提供重要的参考,在总结国内外所使用的碳预测方法,并提出这些方法的局限。因此,取1980~2015年中国碳排放量为样本数据,构建诱导有序加权几何平均(IOWGA)算子的组合预测模型,对中国未来五年的碳排放量进行预测,并将结果和单项预测结果比较。就碳减排问题提出相应的对策建议,以期对碳减排的政策制定提供理论指导。

China's economy has entered a new normal state,in order to balance the economy and the environment,the government has put carbon emission reduction at an unprecedented strategic height.The accurate prediction of carbon emissions can provide important reference for carbon emission reduction,summarize the carbon prediction methods used at home and abroad,and put forward the limitations of these methods.Therefore,the1980~2015Chinese carbon emissions as sample data,construct the induced ordered weighted geometric averaging(IOWGA)operator combination forecasting model,forecast the next five years Chinese carbon emissions,and compare the results and prediction results.The paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions on carbon emission reduction,so as to provide theoretical guidance for the policy formulation of carbon emission reduction.