基于logistic模型和因子分析的上市公司财务危机预警机制研究

Research on Financial Crisis Early Warning Mechanism of Listed Companies Based on Logistic Model and Factor Analysis

近些年,伴随着我国资本市场的快速发展,上市公司面对的财务风险越来越大,亟需进行合理的财务风险预测。本文通过识别模型中财务预警度的大小,分析和预测上市公司的财务风险,帮助公司及时知道财务危险即将到来,以免发生财务危机。采用因子分析法对指标体系进行降维,构建Logistic回归分析预警模型来判别企业的财务危机,结果表明预测模型准确度较高,可以用来预测公司财务危机。通过研究企业的财务风险预警机制以期为企业提供切实可行的财务预警方法,并为完善财务预警研究机制提供一定的参考。

In recent years,with the rapid development of China's capital market,listed companies face more and more financial risks,the urgent need for a reasonable financial risk forecast.This paper analyzes the financial risk of listed companies by identifying the size of the financial warning in the model,and helps the company know that the financial risk is coming in time to avoid the financial crisis.This paper uses the factor analysis method to reduce the dimension of the index system and construct the logistic regression analysis and early warning model to judge the financial crisis.The results show that the forecasting model is highly accurate and can be used to predict the financial crisis.Through the study of corporate financial risk early warning mechanism in order to provide enterprises with practical financial early warning methods,and to improve the financial early warning research mechanism to provide some reference.