基于自回归移动平均模型的医疗设备效益预测

Profits Prediction of Medical Equipment Based on Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model

目的利用自回归移动平均模型(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model,ARIMA)对选取的5个科室的设备效益进行预测,尝试将设备效益分析事后算账转向事前评估、事后分析。方法收集医疗设备效益数据,进行整理汇总,利用ARIMA进行预测,在其达到最优模型的时候观察预测值与实际值的拟合度。结果选择了5个代表性的科室,分别得到了各个科室的最优的ARIMA模型。对心血管内科、泌尿外科、超声影像科的预测值与实测值的趋势是非常吻合的,而消化内科和眼科出现了预测不平稳的现象。结论利用ARIMA模型对医疗设备效益进行预测是一个探索性的、具有创新性的方法,具有一定的参考价值。

Objective This paper predicted the benefit of medical equipment of five clinical departments by using autoregressiveintegrated moving average(ARIMA)model,and tried to turn the post hoc analysis of using benefit to ex ante assessment.MethodsWe collated and summarized medical equipment benefit data to forecast by ARIMA model and observed fitting degree between thepredicted value and the actual value at the time it reaches the optimal model.Results Five representative departments were selectedto obtained optimal ARIMA model.In cardiovascular medicine,urology and ultrasound imaging departments,the predicted valueand the actual value were very close,but the predicted value was not smooth in gastroenterology and ophthalmology departments.Conclusion ARIMA model is an exploratory,innovative method to predict the benefit of medical equipment,which has a certainreference value.