基于社会生态系统视角的长三角地级城市韧性度评价

Evaluating resilience of prefecture cities in the Yangtze River delta region from a socio-ecological perspective

为提升城市应对重大冲击和慢性压力的能力,提高城市的抗打击能力与恢复能力,以及城市对抗不确定风险的韧性程度,本文结合现实背景,以城市社会生态系统的视角,对2014年长三角地区16个地级城市韧性进行实证分析。采用GIS的空间分析和叠加功能方法,从生态环境、市政设施、经济和社会发展4个方面选取24个具体指标,对长三角地区16个地级城市韧性程度及其空间状态做出评价,并确定测度标准值。首先对构成城市韧性的4个因子:生态、市政设施工程、经济以及社会发展进行分析和数字化,得出各因子对城市韧性影响程度的栅格图层;其次对图层进行空间叠加,再得到长三角地区地级城市韧性度评价图。评价结果表明:(1)长三角地级城市韧性呈现"级差化"分布状态,总体呈现出中等韧性状态;(2)长三角地级城市韧性空间分异特征显著,其北翼城市比南翼城市韧性程度较高;(3)长三角地级城市经济、生态韧性在空间分布上相对集中,趋向协调均衡发展。通过城市韧性度分析,认为评价结果基本符合近年来长三角地区城市韧性发展的整体状况,可以在一定程度上增强城市社会生态系统对外界风险的适应能力,并在今后的城市发展调适过程中更具韧性,从而对不同时空尺度的城市韧性状态评价提供一种思路。

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the resilience of16prefecture cities in the Yangtze River Delta in2014by combining actual situations and the perspective of an urban socio ecological system.This paper aims to improve the abilities of cities in dealing with serious trauma and chronic stress,boost their anti strike and recovery capabilities,and increase their resilience against uncertain risks.Measuring standards are determined by selecting24specific indicators based on the aspects of ecological environment,municipal facilities,economics,and social development using the GIS spatial overlay analysis method.First,the raster layer of the effect of each factor on a resilience of a city is acquired by analyzing and digitalizing the four component factors of city resilience,i.e.,ecology,municipal facilities,economics,and social development.Subsequently,the evaluation map of the resilience of the prefecture cities in the Yangtze River Delta Region is obtained by spatially overlaying the rater layers.Evaluation results show the following:①the resilience of the prefecture cities in the Yangtze River Delta Region shows a“differential”distribution pattern,and the entire resilience is intermediate;②the spatial differential features of the prefecture cities in the Yangtze River Delta are remarkable,and the resilience of the northern cities is higher than that of the southern cities;and③the spatial distribution of economics,and the resilience of the prefecture cities in the Yangtze River Delta Region concentrate relatively and tends to develop equally.The evaluation results conform with the overall development of city resilience in the Yangtze River Delta Region in the recent years.The cities can also improve their socio ecological system using the analysis to cope with the external risks,allowing them to become more resilient.Moreover,the results offer ideas regarding resilience analysis of the cities in different spatial sizes.